Farmers Insurance Open

Farmers Insurance Open

It was another week of treading water for us at the Amex as a full place return for Adam Hadwin meant we came away from the event with a level board. Heading in to Sunday we had two players, Hadwin and JT Poston on the fringes of contention and while Poston could never really get anything going Hadwin looked around the turn that he might get right in to the mix. Sadly though his putter went cold on the back nine and in the end we were happy to get the full place.

Away from our battles though the event will live long in the memory for the extraordinary performance from Nick Dunlap who became the first Amateur to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson 33yrs ago.

The Alabama sophomore headed into Sunday with a three shot lead, however most, including me, thought he would wilt in the Sunday spotlight and after his tee shot found water on the seventh leading to a double bogey the writing was on the wall as he surrendered the lead.

Credit to the 20yr old though he hung tough and when, with the pair tied at the top, Sam Burns found water off the 17th tee the event was in Dunlap’s hands. Still though he needed to par the 18th, no given after missing the tee off the fairway, however he held his nerve superbly and holed a 5ft putt to close out the win.

An incredible achievement then, which unlocks the door for the youngster to the PGA Tour and all the riches it holds and he will now have to sit down and make a decision as to whether to turn pro immediately. Regardless as to what he decides though it is clear that another star with a huge future in the game has been born.

So, with the American Express behind us for another year we move on, and for its second week of the West Coast swing the PGA Tour heads about 80 miles South West in California from La Quinta to La Jolla, San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open.

The Farmers Insurance Open originally graced the PGA Tour as the San Diego Open way back in 1952.
In 1981 title sponsors were added to the tournament and after a succession of different sponsors Buick took over as lead sponsor in 1992. They then continued in this role until 2010 at which point Farmers took over.

After being held at a few different courses over the early years the event landed at Torrey Pines in 1968 and there it has remained to the present day.

In addition of course Torrey Pines also features on the US Open rota and the years second Major visited La Jolla last June.

The market is marginally headed up by San Diego native Xander Schauffele with defending champion Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa vying for second favourite spot.

COURSES

For the second week running we have a tournament which uses multiple courses with all players playing one round on the host course, the South Course, over the first two days, along with one round on the North Course.

Those making the cut then play their final two rounds on the South Course.

The North Course is a par 72 coming in at 7258 yds. Whilst the North Course had a redesign from Tom Weiskopf in 2016, which toughened it up slightly, it’s still by far the easier course of the two and the one to take advantage of over the first two days. The greens are bentgrass.

The South Course is pretty much the longest Par 72 course on tour stretching to over 7700 yds.

The greens are Poa Annua.

Whilst it’s not impossible for shorter hitters to compete here big hitters do have an advantage on the South Course.

HISTORY

Let’s start by taking a look at the last ten winners;

2023 M Homa
2022 L List
2021 P Reed
2020 M Leishman
2019 J Rose
2018 J Day
2017 J Rahm
2016 B Snedeker
2015 J Day
2014 S Stallings

The event was dominated by Tiger Woods through the early part of the 2000s with four consecutive wins coming from him from 2005 – 2008. The most recent of his 7 wins at the event came in 2013.

As we can see from the above list over the years this has been an event on the whole for the big names with only Scott Stallings and then to a certain extent 2022 winner Luke List being seen as shock winners in the past 10 years.

In addition to Tiger the other course specialists over recent years have been Brandt Snedeker who as well as having 2 wins to his name has 7 other top 10s in the last 15 editions and Jason Day who has two wins and three further top five’s in the past ten years.

Looking at the winners over the past ten years form in previous events in the calendar year coming in does not seem to be particularly significant.

This can be seen by the fact that only four of the winners since the turn of the decade had a top 10 finish to their name in the calendar year already.

These were Brandt Snedeker [twice], Day in 2015 and Max Homa last year who had finished third at the Sentry in his previous calendar year start.

Up until 2018 though at least one previous start in the year to shake the rust of did seem to be important however that year Day won here on his first start of the year and Justin Rose managed a similar feat in 2019. Normal service has resumed on this front though over the past four years with Homa, List, Leishman and Reed.

Multiple winners are also common place in this event as following on from Tiger’s domination we have seen both Snedeker and Day win twice.

The most striking point to note though is that previous course form does appear to play a significant part here and if we look back at the past ten winners we will see that only two of them, Scott Stallings and Jon Rahm, did not have at least one previous top ten finish here, while two of the past ten winners, Snedeker and Day had actually triumphed here before.

This trend was rubber stamped once more over the past four years with Leishman who triumphed here in 2020 having previously notched four top tens including two runner up finishes, Reed again fitting the bill perfectly having finished sixth here the year before, List triumphing on the back of 10th here the year before and 12th in 2018 and California specialist Homa bagging the trophy last year after a previous ninth place finish.

Allowing for List in 2021 then, Reeds sixth place in 2020, Snedeker [in 2012] and Day when they gained there first wins here, and Rose when he was victorious here, five of the last 12 champions here finished in the top ten the year before.

It should also be noted that not only does previous course form appear to be important but overall experience on the course certainly seems to hold value.

Reed triumphed here on his sixth visit, Leishman bagged the title on his twelfth visit here while Justin Rose, the 2019 Champion, bagged the trophy on his eighth start of the decade after finally cracking the top 10 in start number six. List again fitted the profile perfectly as he triumphed on his eighth start here, while Homa was victorious on his seventh visit.

Conversely the only first time PGA Tour winner in the event this century was Rahm in 2017 and obviously he was no ordinary ‘maiden’.

One other trend that had clearly developed over recent years was the habit of the winner playing the South Course on Thursday and the North Course on Friday and this had been the case every year from 2011 to 2018.

Invariably what we had seen over this period is the eventual winner shoot somewhere around level par or even over par on day one leaving them way down the field before storming through in to contention with a strong round on the Friday.

However this trend was bucked from 2019 through 2021 as Reed opened with a 64 on the North Course in 2021 before posting 72 at the South on Friday, Leishman with a 68 on the North Course in 2020 before posting again 72 on the South the next day, while in 2019 Justin Rose stormed out of the gates with a 63 at the North Course before adding an impressive 66 at the South on Friday.

In 2022 it was a return to the norm with List as he opened with a strong 67 on the South on Thursday before posting 68 at the North on Friday, however last year Homa opened on the North with a 68 before working his was through the field on the South as the week progressed. All in all then it would seem this there is no real clear relevance over the recent years as to, which course the eventual winner starts on.

Finally, being a coastal event the wind can have a big impact on the winning score and who can forget Snedeker’s ‘round of the year’ 69 in the gales [certainly not me as I was on him!] in 2016 to pinch the trophy from nowhere, with all around him struggling to break 76.

In general though it is not uncommon for the winning score to be single figures under par and this has been the case in 3 of the last 9yrs, however in 2020 Leishman triumphed with -15 and the previous year Justin Rose won with a score of -21!

In 2021 perhaps in the build up to the US Open played a bit tougher with only the winner Patrick Reed who landed a five shot victory, posting a double digits under par score at 14- under, while list year List and Will Zalatoris posted 15- under before List edged the playoff. Finally last year Homa triumphed with a 13- under total.

WEATHER FORECAST.

After a showery start to the week things look set to improve for the tournament days and touch wood we look set for a mostly dry week. Temperatures will improve as well as the week progresses however it is not predicted to get above the high 60s.

The wind, which can often be an issue looks set to keep the players honest with gusts around 15mph or so through the week.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with four players this week as follows;

JASON DAY – 25/1 – 2pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

I shall start off this week with a fairly obvious selection in the form of Jason Day.

I sided with Day here last year stating that there ‘had been an awful lot to like about his game over the previous six months or so’ and while this event didn’t see it all click together and a return to the winners enclosure, we didn’t have to wait too much longer for that to happen. Roll on to May and the Aussie tasted victory once more at the Byron Nelson after a run of five top ten’s in six starts beginning here.

Going on from there through 2023 Jason’s consistency dipped a bit however he still managed to post a runner up finish at the Open Championship so there is no doubting 2023 was a hugely positive year for him.

Moving in to 2024 and Jason posted a strong season opening tenth place at the Sentry followed by a mid-division 34th last week at the Amex. Granted the two events he has played so far this year have undoubtedly been low scoring birdie fests however his worst round in eight this year is 69 so he is clearly in a good groove. In addition he sits positive in all key stats so far this year with a best of tenth around the greens and 28th from tee to green.

So we’ve established Jason’s game is bubbling along nicely but the key driver of course to siding with him this week is his love affair with this event over the years.

A two time winner of the Farmers Jason has in addition posted five other top ten finishes in his last eleven visits, making the frame on four other occasion aside from his two wins.

Granted there have been some blips here over the years with three MC’s in that time frame, however a repeat ‘blind bet’ on Jason every year over the past 11 years would have reaped huge dividends.

In an event then that has a history of repeat winners, Day himself of course included, there is really not too much else to add to Jason’s blindingly obvious credentials this week and I feel compelled to have him onside.

SAHITH THEEGALA – 33/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 64th

Next up this week this week I am going to side with the obvious credentials of Sahith Theegala.

As regular readers will know Theegala is a player I have a huge amount of time for both from the point of view of his swashbuckling attitude on the course, which is a joy to watch, and more pertinently for this column, his ceiling and talents as a player, which look set to take him to the very top of the game.

Having endured some heartbreak with Sahith in 2022 at the Travelers he produced the goods in spades for us at the Fortinet at the back end of last year to land his maiden tour title at the Fortinet.

As well as of course bagging him his first tour win that effort immediately catches the eye with regards to here thanks to last years Farmers Champion Homa, who is a two time Fortinet winner. Furthermore it tells us that Sahith is more than comfortable and indeed thrives in front of his home California fans.

A greater look at Sahith’s efforts in Cali to date support this. Firstly fourth place here last year gives us the previous top ten we need while showing us he is comfortable at Torrey, while he then followed up with a sixth at Riviera two starts later. Meanwhile a sixth place at the Fortinet in 2022 means he now has a win and three further top six finishes in his last five starts in Cali.

With regards to this year to date Sahith showed us once again what a fantastic player he is to watch when closing out the Sentry with a round of 63 to push Chris Kirk all the way so we know his game is right there event if he did miss the cut at the Sony the week after.

To sum up, rather like last years winner Homa, Theegala is clearly a man to follow in his home state and I am not going to ignore the obvious pointers to another big week this week.

PATRICK RODGERS – 66/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 9th

Moving on and I make no excuses for returning to Patrick Rodgers.

Having secured himself a spot in the all important top 50 for 2024 Patrick has started the year in solid fashion with a 14th place finish on his Sentry debut and a career best 24th at the Sony Open.

On to this week then and Patrick returns to a venue, which has been a little ‘feast or famine’ for him over the years with two top tens and four missed cuts in eight starts. From that point of view though it must be said his profile sits very well alongside other players who have finally triumphed here after multiple starts and previous eye catching efforts.

In addition with regards to form here it is worth noting that Patrick played solidly in last years US Open here and was on the fringes of contention at halfway before a poor day three saw him go on to finish 31st.

As well as his two strong efforts here the Stanford grad has popped up with big finishes at Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village and Bay Hill over the years, all of, which are the type of ‘big boy’ courses, which link well to Torrey Pines.

While it has no doubt taken Rodgers longer than many anticipated after his stellar amateur career, he is finally cementing himself in the higher reaches of the game and 31yrs old he should be heading now in to his peak years.

With that in mind I am convinced 2024 will be the year it all finally clicks for Patrick and he chalks up the breakthrough win and I am keen to have him on side to follow in the footsteps of Luke List in 2022 by making The Farmers his breakthrough event.

LANTO GRIFFIN – 300/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 64th

Finally this week in the spirit of the huge priced winners we have seen on the PGA Tour to date in 2024 I will roll the dice on Lanto Griffin.

After posting his maiden tour win in Houston in 2019 Lanto ticked on nicely enough for the next couple of years without threatening the highest echelons of the game even though his back injury, which would ultimately derail him was starting to cause him trouble. Eventually though after battling through the problem, in January 2022 things got worse, and by May of that year he was forced to put the clubs away and undergo surgery, which would sideline him for six months.

Returning then in Jan 2023, in hindsight too soon, Griffin then fractured a rib and pulled some muscles, which saw him sidelined for a further two months.

Finally returning in April 2023 and feeling healthy again Griffin struggled through the summer to make any real impact, making only three cuts in 11 starts, however things started to turn around at the Sanderson’s with a 28th place finish and three further made cuts in his final four starts of the year, with a best of 13th at the Shriners, gave the 35yr old something to build on heading in to 2024.

Moving in to this year then and while Griffin hasn’t pulled up any trees yet two made cuts in two starts gives further encouragement and last week he ranked an eye catching fifth in approach play and 15th off the tee in the measured rounds.

Heading in to this week then with confidence hopefully building Lanto returns to an event he has tee’d it up in five times making the cut on four occasions, with best finishes of seventh and 12th.

A native of California it is not surprising Lanto feels comfortable on the West Coast and you would have to think that he sees this week as one of his big opportunities to make a serious dent in to the Major Medical Extension on, which he has 12 starts remaining.

Needless to say a win for Griffin here in this company would seem a bit far-fetched, however after what we have seen over the recent weeks I wouldn’t rule it out! Either way though at the odds we are looking at here if he were to make the frame that would of course be more than acceptable and I am happy to take a risk on him.